Monday, August 10, 2009

LaMarcus Aldridge: What's the Limit?

With a long-term contract extension seemingly on the horizon, LaMarcus would form one of the better duos in the league with Brandon Roy for, at least, the next 5 seasons, assuming he gets a 5 year extension as well. Greg Oden was supposed to be the last musketeer, but a devastating knee injury, which forced doctors to perform the micro-fracture procedure has left some doubt as to whether he can live up to pre-draft expectations. Is Aldridge a good enough Robin to Roy's Batman to win at least one NBA championship if the majority of the same role players are in place, placing himself into elite player status? Or will he only slightly progress into a 1 or 2 time All-Star throughout his career? Coming out of Texas, LaMarcus was an early entry candidate, leaving after his Sophomore year. He picked up the Big 12's Defensive Player of the Year honors and led his team to the Final Four, but was drastically outshined by fellow 06 draft hopeful Tyrus Thomas, who was a good three inches shorter than LaMarcus. All of a sudden it was mock drafts placing Thomas ahead of Aldridge. Critics of his game said he was too soft and loved to stay out on the perimeter and not bang inside. The negatives of his game rang too close to home for fellow Blazer fans as memories of Rasheed Wallace slowly, yet surely, migrating further and further away from the hoop hit home. Going into the draft, he was compared to Channing Frye and Jermaine O'Neal was seen as his best case scenario. Both players had their moments; Jermaine was a 6-time NBA All-Star, and Channing Frye was actually really good, but neither is a player that Portland hoped to get after going 21-61 the prior year. After 3 full seasons, I think it is safe to say Portland made the right move by trading away Viktor Khryapa and the right to Tyrus Thomas for Aldridge, he has surpassed the comparisons to Channing Frye's rookie season averages of 12 ppg and 6 rpg, yet he is not quite on the level of a walking 20-10 player like O'Neal was during his prime. Aldridge has shown is the ability to get better and stronger as the season goes on and it was no more apparent than during the 1st round of the playoffs vs. Houston. Aldridge was the only other option, outside of Roy, who was scoring consistently. He added 1.5 more ppg to his playoff total and was even blocking an additional shot per game. Two things that could prevent LaMarcus from becoming the creme of the crop, in regards to power forwards, are his slow season starts and his rebounding. All of the great 4's this league has seen, Malone, Barkley, and Garnett to name a few, have their games set on automatic all year long and rebound the basketball at will. I know LA plays with Joel and Greg who are threats to go off for 13 boards each night, but Zach Randolph played with Joel too and had no problems cleaning up the glass to the tune of 10+ a night. I don't expect Aldridge to become a double digit rebounding monster, mostly due to playing with our two bigs, but for being nearly being 7 feet tall, a career high of 7.6 rebounds a game isn't going to cut it. With Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett looking like they are on their last hurrah and Dirk Nowitzki already peaking at age 31, being recognized as the league's premier power forward could be had for the taking in a couple short years for the L-Train. At first, he did shy away from the paint and physical contact too much, but Coach Nate got through to him and fans have seen a new, more physical Aldridge show a bevy of unstoppable post moves, nearly unblockable with his high release. Another thing to consider, LaMarcus has never played with a great point guard, let alone a good one(sorry, Steve). The addition of Andre Miller should make his life easier. The team has said to want to run more and that benefits no one more so than L-Train who runs like a Gazelle on the court, seemingly faster than any big from end line to end line. Andre led the league in alley-oop lob passes this past NBA season and the crown should stay in Portland, as LaMarcus can catch anything within the vicinity of his 89 inch wingspan. The real best-case scenario is Rasheed Wallace, minus the attitude, the temper, the lack of motivation to get better, and shying away from taking shots, which ends up being one spectacular player. Many Trail Blazer fans, including myself, thought Sheed had the talent to be the best power forward of his era if he would only assert himself in the post and work as hard as the KG's, Duncan's, and Webber's in the off-season. Even Rasheed with all of those flaws has been a multi-time All-Star and was unquestionably the best player on a team that was 10 minutes away from going to the NBA Finals. LA has already shown he is a high character person who won't battle the referees during games and has one of the top work ethics on the team. By now he has passed the first test by taking McMillan's advice and being more assertive down low. If he can eventually turn out to be the defender Rasheed was, ostensibly, the only thing he took pride in, it will be inevitable for him to become the NBA's premier power forward in 2 years. L-Train will get pushed by Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, and maybe Blake Griffin for 1st team All-NBA status, but Aldridge has all the tools mentally, physically, and maybe most importantly, team talent surrounding him to be the best. Think about it, he should never have to face a double team with Miller, Roy, Rudy, and Miller playing alongside him, and facing LaMarcus one on one means the way way for defenders to stop him is by hoping and praying. He is easily worth whatever money the front office signs him for.

9 comments:

  1. I don't see enough mobility from LA to be the best PF in the league. He has no dribble/drive game whatsoever. He does have a lot of Rasheed in him, you're right. He's a pretty good defender, blocks some shots, good spot up shooter.

    I wouldn't pay more than 10 mil per season for him, though.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well, with Bargnani getting 10 mill a year, he is definitely going to be in the 12-14/yr range. I do agree, he needs that dribble drive face up game that Amare has. I do think he has the agility to do that though.

    ReplyDelete
  3. That Bargnani contract is a joke, right? Dude's one of the worst defenders in the league. With Hedo, Calderon and Bargnani in the starting lineup, that team will give up 110 a night.

    Regarding LA, if it's 12 mil, that's at least worth discussing. If his people ask for 14, they should move him, no question.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Well, I think a difference of 2 mill a year is pretty minuscule, esp. considering who our owner is. For the hell of it, let's say they want to move him, who would you move him for and usually when you put a player on the block, the offers aren't up to market value.
    I think a contract offer similar to what Big Al got(12 mill next season with 1 mill raises the next 3 years) would be fair value for LA, anymore and its pushing it.

    I wonder who will give up more ppg this year..PHX or TOR?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think GMs should always be looking to acquire the top-level MVP candidate players, at any cost. So with that in mind, a package including LA (and Andre Miller) might net us Chris Paul, for instance. Or Deron Williams. Just speculation. But usually teams that win titles have two superstars. Brandon Roy is one already. I'm not convinced LA will get there. He's a finesse player.

    In terms of the PHX/TOR 'contest' for most points allowed, I'll go with PHX because they'll push tempo more.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I really think KP is trying to build his team around the Spurs mold of 3 really good players sprinkled around promising players, a solid bench, and players who know their role. For the 2 superstar thing to work, you really have to have a top 3 player and another top 7-8 player to make it work. Roy is in the top 7-8, but who would we be able to get that is top 3? Wade/Kobe play the same pos. and Howard and James aren't going anywhere. Even if they got Paul..I don't think we'd have enough front court talent to win it all.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I love LA, and I'd pay him just about whatever he wants. Not quite the max, but close to it. I'd give him 12 million a year. Of course, it's not my money. KneeJerkNBA said he can't drive, but then again, when does Tim Duncan ever drive? I'd I wouldn't say he can't. He doesn't do it very often, but I've seen him drive a little, and towards the end of last season his inside game was growing better and better.

    ReplyDelete
  8. @Dustin: the Spurs mold you mention has a dominant low post player that their entire offense and defense is built around (Duncan). Would this make Oden our Duncan?

    @Mike: you can't compare LA to Duncan, dude. Duncan's been All NBA and All Defense every season he's been in the league (12 years running). Duncan doesn't need to drive because he's one of the best post players in history. They're similar in that both can hit the mid-range J off of guard penetration, yes. But LA could practice for 25 hours every day for the rest of his life and never be Duncan. And I'm not bashing LA. I like him. I just don't think he's a superstar.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I don't think the Spurs mold is built entirely around Duncan, just 3 damn good players. Each has been an equal part in their winning 3 titles this decade...as long as Portland has 3 excellent players + their bench, we should be ok.
    Defensively Oden would be our Duncan and offensively, LA has the room to grow to become dominant down low.

    ReplyDelete